Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
