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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

Yet the latest race is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising in unison. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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